🎯 Live Prospective Validation
Status:
72 predictii evaluate · 0 pending ·
de la 2026-04-30 13:12:05 · ultima eval: 2026-04-30 18:47:18
📊 Sumar prospectiv per strategie
| Sys |
Strategie |
Total |
Evaluate |
Hit rate |
Baseline (teoretic) |
Δ vs random |
| 1/1 |
hot |
5 |
5 |
30.67% |
750.00% |
-719.33 pp |
| 1/1 |
recent |
5 |
5 |
24.67% |
750.00% |
-725.33 pp |
| 1/1 |
smart |
5 |
5 |
24.67% |
750.00% |
-725.33 pp |
| 1/1 |
random |
5 |
5 |
22.67% |
750.00% |
-727.33 pp |
| 1/1 |
mean_rev |
5 |
5 |
19.33% |
750.00% |
-730.67 pp |
| 2/2 |
recent |
5 |
5 |
4.00% |
180.38% |
-176.38 pp |
| 2/2 |
mean_rev |
5 |
5 |
4.00% |
180.38% |
-176.38 pp |
| 2/2 |
hot |
5 |
5 |
3.33% |
180.38% |
-177.05 pp |
| 2/2 |
random |
5 |
5 |
3.33% |
180.38% |
-177.05 pp |
| 2/2 |
smart |
5 |
5 |
3.33% |
180.38% |
-177.05 pp |
| 3/3 |
smart |
5 |
5 |
2.00% |
41.63% |
-39.63 pp |
| 3/3 |
mean_rev |
5 |
5 |
1.33% |
41.63% |
-40.29 pp |
| 3/3 |
random |
5 |
5 |
0.67% |
41.63% |
-40.96 pp |
| 3/3 |
hot |
5 |
5 |
0.67% |
41.63% |
-40.96 pp |
| 3/3 |
recent |
2 |
2 |
0.00% |
41.63% |
-41.63 pp |
🧪 Paired t-statistic (vs random) — semnificație statistică
Per strategie, calculez `diff[D] = hit_rate_strat[D] - hit_rate_random[D]` pe aceleași extrageri.
t-stat = mean(diff) / SE. |t| > 1.96 = semnificativ la α=0.05 (one-sample t-test, n>30).
| Sys |
Strategie |
N (paired) |
Mean Δ pp |
SE pp |
t-stat |
Semnificație |
| 1/1 |
hot |
5 |
+14.667 |
3.266 |
4.49 |
*** p<0.01 |
| 1/1 |
mean_rev |
5 |
+3.333 |
0.000 |
136,083.85 |
*** p<0.01 |
| 1/1 |
recent |
5 |
+8.667 |
4.899 |
1.77 |
* p<0.10 |
| 1/1 |
smart |
5 |
+8.667 |
0.816 |
10.61 |
*** p<0.01 |
| 2/2 |
hot |
5 |
+0.667 |
1.633 |
0.41 |
NS |
| 2/2 |
mean_rev |
5 |
+1.333 |
0.816 |
1.63 |
NS |
| 2/2 |
recent |
5 |
+1.333 |
2.261 |
0.59 |
NS |
| 2/2 |
smart |
5 |
+0.667 |
1.633 |
0.41 |
NS |
| 3/3 |
hot |
5 |
+0.667 |
0.667 |
1.00 |
NS |
| 3/3 |
mean_rev |
5 |
+1.333 |
0.816 |
1.63 |
NS |
| 3/3 |
smart |
5 |
+2.000 |
0.816 |
2.45 |
** p<0.05 |
📈 Ultimele 20 evaluari
| Snapshot |
Target Draw |
Sys |
Strategie |
Hits / N |
Hit rate |
vs baseline |
| 2026-04-30 13:12 |
16750 |
1 |
hot |
8 / 30 |
26.7% |
-723.3 pp |
| 2026-04-30 13:12 |
16750 |
1 |
smart |
8 / 30 |
26.7% |
-723.3 pp |
| 2026-04-30 13:12 |
16750 |
1 |
mean_rev |
7 / 30 |
23.3% |
-726.7 pp |
| 2026-04-30 13:12 |
16750 |
1 |
recent |
5 / 30 |
16.7% |
-733.3 pp |
| 2026-04-30 13:12 |
16750 |
1 |
random |
6 / 30 |
20.0% |
-730.0 pp |
| 2026-04-30 13:12 |
16750 |
2 |
hot |
1 / 30 |
3.3% |
-177.0 pp |
| 2026-04-30 13:12 |
16750 |
2 |
smart |
1 / 30 |
3.3% |
-177.0 pp |
| 2026-04-30 13:12 |
16750 |
2 |
mean_rev |
3 / 30 |
10.0% |
-170.4 pp |
| 2026-04-30 13:12 |
16750 |
2 |
recent |
2 / 30 |
6.7% |
-173.7 pp |
| 2026-04-30 13:12 |
16750 |
2 |
random |
2 / 30 |
6.7% |
-173.7 pp |
| 2026-04-30 13:12 |
16750 |
3 |
hot |
0 / 30 |
0.0% |
-41.6 pp |
| 2026-04-30 13:12 |
16750 |
3 |
smart |
1 / 30 |
3.3% |
-38.3 pp |
| 2026-04-30 13:12 |
16750 |
3 |
mean_rev |
0 / 30 |
0.0% |
-41.6 pp |
| 2026-04-30 13:12 |
16750 |
3 |
recent |
0 / 30 |
0.0% |
-41.6 pp |
| 2026-04-30 13:12 |
16750 |
3 |
random |
0 / 30 |
0.0% |
-41.6 pp |
| 2026-04-30 13:22 |
16750 |
1 |
hot |
8 / 30 |
26.7% |
-723.3 pp |
| 2026-04-30 13:22 |
16750 |
1 |
smart |
8 / 30 |
26.7% |
-723.3 pp |
| 2026-04-30 13:22 |
16750 |
1 |
mean_rev |
7 / 30 |
23.3% |
-726.7 pp |
| 2026-04-30 13:22 |
16750 |
1 |
recent |
5 / 30 |
16.7% |
-733.3 pp |
| 2026-04-30 13:22 |
16750 |
1 |
random |
9 / 30 |
30.0% |
-720.0 pp |
Reminder onest:
Walk-forward + paired bootstrap pe 1000 extrageri istorice arata ca nicio strategie nu bate
random robust statistic (toate p-values > 0.14). Aceasta pagina e validarea live, prospectiva,
cea mai stricta. Daca dupa 100+ extrageri reale tot nu vedem t-stat > 1.96 robust, confirmam
definitiv ca loto e indistingabil de random.